Who is the Bharatiya Janata Party’s chief ministerial candidate in the October 5 Haryana Legislative Assembly election? That question has emerged as an intriguing sub-plot.
The BJP has officially declared the incumbent chief minister Nayab Singh Saini as its candidate for the post.
However, during the campaign, at least two other BJP leaders in the state, former Haryana Home Minister Anil Vij and Union minister Rao Inderjit Singh, have publicly staked claim to the post.
This is unusual for the BJP, a party known for its discipline and lack of questioning of the official party line by members, at least in public.
According to political observers in Haryana, the BJP is tolerating, if not encouraging, such public claims against the party line. Since the BJP is on a weak footing in the state and looks unlikely to retain power, it has strategically calculated that multiple leaders projecting themselves as potential chief ministers is likely to enthuse their supporters and help the party electorally.
Another reason, observers say, could be Saini’s perception within the state of being a lame-duck chief minister.
Earlier this month, Vij, a six-time MLA from the Ambala Cantonment constituency and one of the most senior BJP leaders in Haryana, said that he would stake claim for the chief minister’s post if the party returns to power
He had added that it was up to the party high command to make him chief minister and that, if he were to helm the government, he would “change the picture of Haryana”.
Apart from Vij, six-time MP Singh claimed while campaigning for the party that the people of Haryana want him to become the chief minister. He said that the BJP’s former chief minister Manohar Lal Khattar would not have come to power in 2014 or 2019 without the support of southern Haryana, where he holds sway.
Among the 11 assembly constituencies in the districts of Gurugram, Mahendragarh and Rewari in this region, after being unable to secure victory in any of the seats in 2009, the BJP won all 11 in 2014 and eight in 2019.
Union minister Dharmendra Pradhan, the BJP’s election in-charge in Haryana, and Union Home Minister Amit Shah reaffirmed that Saini is the party’s chief ministerial candidate. But neither Vij nor Singh have been publicly cautioned by the party leadership against making such claims.
Having several party leaders stake claim to the chief minister’s post may not be a sign of indiscipline within the organisation. Rather, it may be part of the BJP’s strategy to enthuse its voter base as it attempts to ward off anti-incumbency sentiment in Haryana, political analysts in the state told Scroll.
“Discipline or indiscipline within a party is dependent on the party’s strength,” said SK Chahal, professor and dean faculty of social sciences at Kurukshetra University. “If a party is strong somewhere, it is less likely to have dissenting voices, especially when it also has a dominant leader at the top.”
Since the BJP is struggling in Haryana, facing not only anti-incumbency sentiment but also unrest within its cadre over the distribution of tickets, various party leaders are jostling for power, according to Chahal.
Said Rajendra Sharma, Head of the Political Science Department at Maharshi Dayanand University in Rohtak, “The BJP is a highly organised party. It knows it is on the backfoot in Haryana.”
He pointed out that no party in Haryana has formed three consecutive goverments and no party has ever won a majority in two consecutive elections. This is evidence of a culture of anti-incumbency in the state, said Sharma.
“The BJP is deliberately projecting three chief ministerial candidates to mobilise its vote base in three different regions and from three different communities,” he said.
The chief minister is expected to prioritise the development of their own constituency and region of influence and be more accessible to voters from their region and community.
Saini, a member of the Other Backward Classes, is from the GT Road belt of the state. Vij, from the Punjabi community, is from northern Haryana. Singh, a member of the Ahir community, is one of the most popular leaders in the Ahirwal region of southern Haryana.
Most of the seats that the BJP had won in the last two elections came from these three regions – 33 of its 47 seats in 2014 and 22 of its 40 seats in 2019. The Haryana assembly has 90 seats, of which 38 seats come from these three areas.
Khattar had told the media, “All 90 candidates can claim to be the CM in their constituencies if it helps in getting more votes.”
Explained Haryana-based journalist Mandeep Punia, editor of the independent media outlet Gaon Savera, “The BJP is tolerating such public declarations in order to attract more votes.”
Punia drew attention to Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s recent campaign speech in the Loharu constituency of Bhiwani in favour of the BJP candidate JP Dalal, who was the finance minister in the outgoing state government. Shah had told the crowd twice that if they “send JP Dalal to Chandigarh” – the capital of Haryana – “as a legislator, the BJP will make him a bada aadmi” – a big or important person.
“This was a signal that they would make Dalal the chief minister,” said Punia. “What other post is bigger than the finance ministry that Dalal already held?”
Another factor behind Singh’s and Vij’s public claims is the public perception of the incumbent Saini as a weak chief minister.
Saini, who was first elected to the Haryana assembly in 2014, was, like his predecessor Khattar, plucked out of relative political obscurity by the BJP high command in March and placed in the chief minister’s office. His surprise elevation was meant to ward off anti-incumbency sentiment against the BJP in the wake of the Lok Sabha elections in the state in May and appeal to the state’s Other Backward Classes, from which Saini hails.
Despite this, the BJP ended up retaining only half of the ten Lok Sabha seats in the general election that it had swept in 2019. The Congress won the rest.
Saini, who is junior to Vij and Singh by nearly two decades in both age and political experience, is not a mass leader.
“Saini is seen as a puppet and as a front for Khattar,” said Haryana-based independent journalist Uday Che, who runs the Jan Manch YouTube channel that covers grassroots politics in Haryana. “Everyone knows that he was made chief minister only to attract OBC voters.”
While effusive in praise for Saini as a leader, Chahal agreed with Che. “There is a perception that Saini is not in charge,” he said.
This could be seen in the suspense over which seat Saini would contest the assembly election.
Saini was reportedly keen to contest from the Karnal seat, from which he had won a bye-election only three months ago. In 2014 and 2019, it had been won by his predecessor Khattar.
However, the party ultimately decided to field him from the Ladwa seat in Kurukshetra, where he faces a tougher challenge.
Both Anil Vij and Rao Inderjit Singh are atypical members of the BJP, known to veer from the party line.
“Inderjit Singh has always had license within the BJP to speak his mind,” said veteran Haryana-based journalist Mahesh Kumar Vaidya, who runs the NJP Haryana YouTube channel that covers politics in Haryana.
He added: “Vij also has a reputation as a headstrong leader.”
For instance, Vij had earlier this year walked out of the legislature party meet when after Saini replaced Khattar as the state’s chief minister in March and had also skipped Saini’s swearing-in ceremony.
Singh had last year differed from Khattar and Vij in blaming both the Hindu and Muslim communities for the communal strife in Nuh. He had described the brandishing of weapons by some members of the Hindu religious procession as provocative.
Earlier this month, he had also criticised the state party leadership for denying a ticket to former state party chief Ram Bilas Sharma.
This is because both enjoy popularity in their constituencies independent of party affiliation.
As a college student, Vij was associated with the Akhil Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad, the student wing of the BJP’s ideological parent, the Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh. But two of his six victories in the assembly election from his constituency have been as an independent candidate. The other four were on a BJP ticket.
Singh does not even have ideological grounding in the BJP. A four-time MLA, he has served as a minister in an Indian National Congress-led state government. Since 1998, he has been elected to the Lok Sabha six times from the Ahirwal region: the first three times on a Congress ticket, and the next three times from the BJP Party. He has served as Gurugram’s Lok Sabha representative since 2009.
The son of a former chief minister of the state and the scion of a former royal Ahir family, he enjoys popularity in the Ahirwal region spanning parts of southern Haryana, northeastern Rajasthan and southwestern Delhi.
Both Singh and Vij were among the frontrunners for the chief minister’s post after the BJP won the Haryana assembly polls in 2014. However, Khattar, then a first-time MLA, emerged as the party’s choice for the post primarily, it has been speculated, due to his close ties with Prime Minister Narendra Modi.